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Yes/No Daily: prediction market news for Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Biggest movers

Today’s issue →All markets →

Futures

One long-dated market a day, argued in full, with a call.

Today’s callNo trade today

No trade.

Watch it at 6%.

Read the full case →

Politics

Elections, control of Congress, the world's flashpoints, and the odds on each.

Trump Delays Russia Sanctions Two Days Before Deadline

President Donald Trump signed an order Friday delaying a sweeping sanctions package he had signed into law last month, two days before it was due to take effect. The measure targeted Russian banks, officials, tanker fleets and major buyers of Russian energy.

The closest market reads on Washington’s appetite for pressure abroad are on Iran, not Russia: no Hormuz agreement before the midterms is priced at 91.3%, and the US-Iran ceasefire holding through October 31 sits at 78%. Our read: those prices say the truce is expected to hold, and nothing in them speaks to Moscow.

Democrats Crush Republicans in Key Senate Fundraising

U.S. Senate midterm fundraising: new third-quarter filings broke sharply toward Democrats. In Texas, Democratic nominee James Talarico reported $64 million against Republican Ken Paxton’s $18 million, and Democrats posted large advantages in Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Maine and North Carolina.

The combined contract on Republicans holding both the Senate and the House after the midterms sits at 9%. That is a long shot on the full sweep; it does not say how traders price the Senate alone, and Talarico’s cash edge is one race inside that larger question.

Politics · Senate control 2026

65.5%

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Politics · House control 2026

91.5%

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Politics · 2028 presidential election odds

19%

J.D. Vance

Politics · Government shutdown odds

38%

Yes

Most traded, 24hVenueYES1dVolume
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket · $2.9MPolymarket24.5%−2.0$2.9M
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?Polymarket · $889KPolymarket7.5%−7.5$889K
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Polymarket · $857KPolymarket26.5%−2.5$857K
2026 Balance of Power: OtherPolymarket · $857KPolymarket0.2%+0.1$857K
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket · $418KPolymarket0.7%+0.5$418K
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket · $242KPolymarket93.5%+8.0$242K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Polymarket · $236KPolymarket3.9%−1.6$236K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? — Ken Paxton (R)Polymarket · $231KPolymarket33.5%−2.0$231K

Economy

The Fed, inflation, jobs, and the scheduled prints that move expectations.

Fed’s Warsh Keeps October Rate Increase in Play

Federal Reserve interest-rate policy: Chair Kevin Warsh went into the pre-meeting blackout saying the economy has broadly matched officials’ expectations since September’s rate increase. He gave no explicit signal for October.

Kalshi’s October Fed market has “no change” at 87% and a 25-basis-point hike at 14%. Those are separate bets: the hike contract pays only on a quarter-point increase, while “no change” pays only if rates stay exactly where they are.

Economy · Fed decision odds

7%

Hike 25bps

Economy · Fed funds rate odds

35%

Above 4.75%

Economy · CPI inflation odds

44%

Above 3.9%

Economy · Jobs report odds

51%

Above 70,000

Most traded, 24hVenueYES1dVolume
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket · $3.7MPolymarket93.4%−1.0$3.7M
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Polymarket · $207KPolymarket3.9%−0.8$207K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in October? — ↓ $60Polymarket · $74KPolymarket0.1%−0.1$74K
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Polymarket · $73KPolymarket55%−4.5$73K
Will there be a recession in 2026? — StartsKalshi · 42K contractsKalshi2%−3.042K contracts
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Polymarket · $41KPolymarket4.8%+2.7$41K
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? — $2.0–$2.25TPolymarket · $29KPolymarket21.7%−0.9$29K
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 5.0% in November?Kalshi · 6K contractsKalshi1%−1.06K contracts

Sports

Tonight's marquee games, championship futures, and how exchange prices compare with the books.

No. 4 Ohio State Visits Unbeaten No. 5 Indiana

No. 4 Ohio State plays at No. 5 Indiana on Saturday, the first top-five game ever held at Indiana’s Memorial Stadium. The Buckeyes are 3.5-point road favorites.

Sportsbooks make Ohio State the favorite, and Kalshi agrees: Ohio St. is priced at 59% to win and Indiana at 42% for today’s top-five game.

Rain Pushes ALCS Game 4 Into Saturday Night

Baseball’s American League Championship Series: Game 4 between Tampa Bay and Cleveland was pushed to Saturday at 8 p.m. ET after Friday’s rain never cleared. Cleveland leads the best-of-seven series 2-1.

The makeup Game 4 is still roughly a coin flip on Kalshi: Tampa Bay 53%, Cleveland 47% for Saturday night.

Sports · Super Bowl odds

15%

San Francisco 49ers

Sports · College football national champion odds

16%

Georgia

Sports · NFL MVP odds

18%

Joe Burrow

Sports · Kalshi

57%(+3.0)

Milwaukee wins

1.2M contracts · 24h

Most traded, 24hVenueYES1dVolume
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage — Match WinnerPolymarket · $859KPolymarket10.5%—$859K
Hubert Hurkacz winsKalshi · 852K contractsKalshi51%−11.0852K contracts
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Polymarket · $422KPolymarket0.2%—$422K
Xinran Sun winsKalshi · 367K contractsKalshi83%+39.0367K contracts
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?Polymarket · $327KPolymarket2.9%−13.8$327K
Will Philadelphia win the Pro Football NFC East Division? — Philadelphia EaglesKalshi · 307K contractsKalshi6%−5.0307K contracts
Will Seattle win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? — Seattle SeahawksKalshi · 248K contractsKalshi7%0.0248K contracts
Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC North Division? — Pittsburgh SteelersKalshi · 225K contractsKalshi19%0.0225K contracts

Weather

Daily temperature contracts: tracked and explained, never called.

Weather · New York City daily high temperature

77%

60° to 61°

Weather · Chicago daily high temperature

64%

70° to 71°

Weather · Miami daily high temperature

63%

83° to 84°

Weather · Kalshi

1%(+1.0)

Will the maximum temperature be <60° on Oct 27, 2026? — 59° or below

19K contracts · 24h

No liquid markets on this desk in the last 24 hours.

Crypto

Price-threshold contracts on the majors, and the wording that decides them.

The Ethereum ladder gave way today. Polymarket’s market on ETH above $2,500 on Oct. 17 fell to 1% (−9.7), and no catalyst is verified for the move. Bitcoin’s side was busier than it was dramatic: Kalshi’s $82,000-or-above contract for the same date traded 102K contracts and shows 13% (+13), while Polymarket prices Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by Dec. 31 at 20.5% (−2). Both daily ladders settle Oct. 17.

Crypto · Bitcoin $100K odds

74.5%

Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2027?

Crypto · Bitcoin daily price odds

0%

$81,500 or above

Crypto · Ethereum daily price odds

65%

$2,320 or above

Crypto · Polymarket

2.1%(−1.3)

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October? — ↑ 90,000

$83K · 24h

Most traded, 24hVenueYES1dVolume
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 27?Polymarket · $119KPolymarket2%−16.0$119K
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 27?Polymarket · $38KPolymarket99.1%+2.9$38K
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October? — ↓ 2,200Polymarket · $22KPolymarket30.5%−4.0$22K
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 27? — ↓ 78,000Polymarket · $17KPolymarket7.5%—$17K