House control 2026
Which party wins control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?
The other half of the midterm question, and the more liquid of the two on Polymarket.
The market now
| Market | Venue | YES | 1d | 7d | Bid / Ask | Volume | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Polymarket | 91.5% | — | — | 91 / 92 | $13.6M | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Polymarket | 8.5% | — | — | 8 / 9 | $10.2M |
YES is the price of the “yes” side in percent; a contract pays 100 if it happens. Changes are in points. Polymarket's displayed price can be a bid–ask midpoint or the last trade, not a price you can hit; the bid and ask columns are what was executable at quote time.
What comes next
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 — Midterm election day. Full calendar.
What actually settles it
The venue’s own rule text for each contract, as published at quote time. This is the sentence that pays, and it can differ from the headline.
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? (Polymarket)
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Trading closes Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. View on Polymarket
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? (Polymarket)
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Trading closes Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. View on Polymarket
How to read this market
How to read election markets without confusing odds with vote share — A 60% chance of winning is not 60% of the vote. What election contracts predict, what moves them, and how control-of-Congress contracts actually settle.
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