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What happened in the last 24 hours — the stories the money will react to.
Iran Truce Contracts: Near-Certain for Today, 78% for Two Weeks Out
US–Iran ceasefire: the contract on the truce holding through today sits at 98.6% (+1.2), while the version that runs through October 31 slipped to 78% (−3) over the past 24 hours. The separate Israel–Iran ceasefire contract through tomorrow, October 18, is at 97.2% (+0.4). The longer-dated question of whether the U.S. invades Iran before 2027 is priced at 15%. No public catalyst in our feed explains the two-week contract’s drift.
The other read on the region: no Hormuz agreement before the midterms is priced at 91.3% (−2.8). Our read: the near-dated prices say the truce is expected to hold day to day, and the gap to 78% is the market’s price on something breaking in the next two weeks.
Fed Hold Expected in October, but a Warsh Surprise Is the Talk
Federal Reserve interest-rate policy: CNBC’s analysis says everyone expects the Fed to hold rates in October, but that Chair Kevin Warsh could surprise. USA Today frames Warsh as wanting price stability, and ABC News reports economists are divided on whether the Fed raises rates this year at all. The October contracts settle October 28, so the next thing that could change minds is the decision itself.
Kalshi’s October Fed market has “no change” at 87% and a 25-basis-point hike at 14%; Polymarket’s mirror of the same decision sits at 87% and 14%. Those are separate bets: the hike contract pays only on a quarter-point increase, while “no change” pays only if rates stay exactly where they are.
Ohio State–Indiana Is Saturday’s Biggest Market
College football, Week 7 Saturday per OregonLive: Ohio State faces Indiana today in the game that has drawn more money than any other on the board, 1.74 million contracts lifetime and 1.21 million in the past 24 hours. The price drifted toward the underdog over the day: Ohio State slipped (−2) and Indiana rose (+3). In the national-title market, Ohio State sits at 16% and Indiana at 9%, so the result reprices that too.
Kalshi has Ohio St. at 59% to win and Indiana at 42% for today’s game. No matched sportsbook line was available in our feed, so the Kalshi price stands alone.
Midterm Betting Volume Nears $1 Billion
iGaming Business puts volume on the 2026 midterms close to $1 billion, and RG.org says it has topped $750 million across Kalshi and Polymarket. Chron reports prediction markets expect two Texas Republicans to lose their races. The election contracts settle November 3, 17 days out. On Wednesday a trader known as burrito338 put $195K into YES at 91% on Democrats controlling the House.
Democrats controlling the House after the midterms sits at 91%, and the combined contract on Republicans holding both the Senate and the House is at 9%. That is a long shot on the full sweep; it does not say how traders price the Senate alone.
ALCS: Rays vs. Guardians Tonight
Baseball’s American League Championship Series: Tampa Bay and Cleveland play tonight at 8 p.m. ET, and the promo-code pieces from FOX Sports and CBS Sports are built around ALCS Game 4 between these two clubs. It is the only MLB game on today’s board, tenth by volume behind nine college football games. The Polymarket total on the game sits at 52% for over 6.5 runs, close to a toss-up.
Tonight’s game is roughly a coin flip on Kalshi: Tampa Bay 53% (−2), Cleveland 47%.
Shanghai Masters tennis: Alexander Zverev to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — 87% (+12)
Men’s tennis, Shanghai Masters: Zverev went from a three-in-four favorite to 87%, with 86% (+11) on Kalshi’s mirror of the match and Davidovich Fokina down to 14% (−12), a sharp swing on heavy volume. One caution: the match began at 4:30am ET, so part of the move may be in-play pricing rather than pre-match conviction. Treat 87% as a live number, not a verdict.
View market ↗US–Iran ceasefire holds through October 31 — 78% (−3)
The US–Iran truce: the contract on the ceasefire surviving through October 31 slipped to 78% (−3) since yesterday. The contract that asks only about today sits at 98.6%, so the gap between the two is the price of something breaking in the next two weeks. No public catalyst explains the move. The related question, whether the US invades Iran before 2027, is priced at 15%. Our read: a real wobble in the truce would show up in that contract too, and it hasn’t.
View market ↗NFL, Ravens vs Browns tomorrow: Baltimore — 62% (−4)
NFL, Sunday: the Baltimore Ravens drifted to 62% (−4) to beat the Cleveland Browns, and the Browns rose to 39% (+4). The game drew 805K contracts in 24 hours, more than any other NFL matchup. Baltimore is still the favorite. The point-spread contract shows how traders expect it to go: Baltimore winning by more than 4.5 points is priced at 42%, so a one-score finish is the base case. Injury reports before kickoff are what would move it again.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? The market says 6%.
Consequential, long-dated, and hard to price from outside.
The market prices a fall before 2027 at 6%, with $131K traded in 24 hours and $583K of liquidity. It resolves Dec 31, 75 days out, and a collapse would settle it early. A U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at 15%.
The surrounding contracts describe a tense but stable picture. The US–Iran ceasefire holding through today is priced at 98.6%, through October 31 at 78% (−3), and the Israel–Iran ceasefire through tomorrow at 97.2%. No Hormuz agreement before the midterms sits at 91.3%, and on Thursday a trader paid 99.1% for NO on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by October 31. The region is priced as locked in a standoff, not as a government in free fall.
The case for the low price is that none of those contracts is moving the way a collapse would move them. A regime about to fall would show up first in the invasion contract at 15% and in the two-week ceasefire contract at 78%; both have drifted, neither has broken. The case against it is the horizon: 75 days is long enough for a standoff to resolve in either direction, and a 6% tail is not nothing when the invasion contract is more than twice that.
Our read: 6% over 75 days is about what the surrounding prices support. We would revisit if the October 31 ceasefire contract falls through the 60s, or if the invasion contract moves sharply.
Today’s markets deciding — a side, a price, a time. Trade idea means a documented edge; price to watch means a stated price would change our mind; watch means worth reading, no edge claimed. All markets open at send.
College football’s biggest game by money today: 1.2 million contracts in 24 hours. Ohio State slipped (−2) and Indiana rose to 42%. The national-title market has Ohio State at 16% and Indiana at 9%, so this one shapes the title race too.
College football, the third-biggest game on the board at 862,000 contracts traded. BYU is priced at 22% to win outright. Notre Dame sits at 14% in the national-title market, so an upset would reprice that market as well.
College football, the fifth-biggest game by money with 134,000 contracts in 24 hours, and the price has not moved: Alabama 75%, Tennessee 26%. Traders settled on a three-to-one favorite and left it there.
NFL, Sunday’s biggest game by money, and it outdraws anything today: 2.24 million contracts total, 309,000 in the past 24 hours. Carolina is 62% (−2) to win, 59% to win by 2 or more points, and the over on 41.5 total points is 40%. The expectation is a low-scoring Panthers win.
The biggest individual trades of the last 24 hours — who put money down, how much, and how it went.
League of Legends Worlds is the annual world championship of the video game, and on Friday two traders took opposite sides of one play-in series: corkmaster420blaezit bought Cloud9 for $615K across three trades, and Diabolical-Prize bought FURIA for $152K.
Doug Burgum for the 2028 Republican nomination: 0.2%. $483K traded on it in a day.
The former North Dakota governor’s odds moved a tenth of a point. The volume moved a great deal more.
The 2028 Republican presidential nomination: Doug Burgum, the former governor of North Dakota, is priced at 0.2% to be the party’s nominee. Even so, $483K changed hands on that question in the past 24 hours, roughly two-thirds of the market’s displayed liquidity of $758K. The price moved all of (+0.1) points. For scale, Kalshi’s next-president market, which asks a different question than the nomination, has Marco Rubio at 9%.
What pays: Burgum must be the party’s nominee. A running-mate slot, a cabinet title, or a respectable Iowa finish settles nothing. The contract runs 752 more days, to November 7, 2028, but that is a deadline, not a runway; the nomination is decided well before then. That is a lot of trading on a 0.2% outcome. Activity is not evidence that anyone knows an announcement is coming, and a near-certain NO is not a guaranteed payout, because losing shares pay nothing. Our read: the price is the information here. The market has a view on Burgum, and the view is no. The volume is the entertainment. ↗