$ yes/no --daily
- 01 /
- 02 /
- 03 /
- 04 /
- 05 /
What happened in the last 24 hours — the stories the money will react to.
Trump’s “Energy Ceasefire” Disputed as Ukraine Reports New Russian Strikes
Donald Trump says there is an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and he insists it holds. Kyiv disputes it: Zelensky says six Ukrainian energy sites have been hit by Russia since the announcement and that it is “increasingly evident that Russia is unwilling to accept an energy ceasefire.” The Kremlin rejected Zelenskyy’s idea of a 60-day ceasefire, saying it wants an overall peace deal, while adding that contacts are continuing. Energy prices rose after the announcement failed to move either side.
The nearest market is on the Kremlin itself: “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?” is priced at 4.6% (+1.6) on $257K traded in a day.
September CPI Lands Wednesday; Kalshi Has 3.6% as the Coin Flip
The week’s biggest scheduled test for rate markets is Wednesday morning’s September consumer price report, which settles Kalshi’s inflation brackets at 8:29 a.m. ET. The ladder is steep: the yearly rate is priced above 3.3% at 98%, above 3.5% at 87%, above 3.6% at 50%, above 3.7% at 11% and above 3.8% at 1%. The monthly print rising more than 0.3% is priced at 93%. It matters because the next Fed meeting is 15 days out, with a quarter-point hike at 18% (+3) and no change at 81% (−3).
Kalshi treats tomorrow's headline number as a coin flip at 3.6%: "Above 3.6%" is priced at 50%, "Above 3.5%" at 87% and "Above 3.8%" at just 1%.
Kalshi Says 100,000 Hawaii Users Are Trading Despite State Gambling Ban
KHON2 reports Kalshi said 100,000 Hawaii users are already trading on its app, in a state where gambling is illegal. The claim lands as CBS Sports runs through the legal status of Kalshi and Polymarket sports markets in all 50 states. The volume that makes the fight worth having is visible on today’s board: one baseball game has drawn 440,530 contracts on Kalshi, and the Falcons’ Super Bowl contract alone turned over 298,665 in 24 hours.
The busiest Kalshi game market today, Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland, traded 430,162 contracts in 24 hours with Tampa Bay at 57%.
Rays Priced at 57% Over Guardians in ALCS Game 2 Tonight
Kalshi’s marquee game today is ALCS Game 2, Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland, first pitch 8:00 p.m. ET tonight. The market has traded 440,530 contracts in its lifetime, 430,162 of them in the last 24 hours, more than any other game on the board. Tampa Bay is priced at 57% (−1) and Cleveland at 44% (+1). Our sportsbook check found no book line to compare against, so Kalshi is the only price on this one.
Kalshi prices Tampa Bay at 57% to win Game 2 and Cleveland at 44%.
Bills-Rams Drew Six-Figure Buffalo Money Late Monday
Goal.com’s Monday roundup had the Rams edging the Bills on Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig. Polymarket’s tape showed the biggest money going the other way on Monday evening: BreakTheBank bought Bills at 49% ($230K) at 8:46 p.m. ET, then ethanaz at 60% ($209K) and cosmicxbt at 68% ($133K) near 11 p.m., against one $125K Rams buy at 47% by ferrariChampions2026. The rising Buffalo entry prices on the tape are the only in-game read we have; the game result is not on our settled list this morning.
Overnight the season-long markets moved: Buffalo rose 4 to 65% to win the AFC East, the Rams fell 8 to 20% in the NFC West, and the Super Bowl prices sit at Bills 12% (+2), Rams 10% (−1).
Dodgers Favored at 62% Over Brewers Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s top game on Kalshi is Milwaukee vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers, with Los Angeles priced at 62% (+1) and Milwaukee at 39% (−2) on 235,045 contracts, 218,930 of them in the last 24 hours. On Polymarket, Sassy-Bucket bought $115K of Brewers at 46% on Monday afternoon in a Dodgers vs. Brewers market. A further Milwaukee–Los Angeles game listed on Kalshi has Milwaukee at 45% (+2).
For tomorrow's game, Kalshi prices Los Angeles at 62% and the Brewers at 39%.
Wuhan Open tennis: Daria Snigur to beat Elise Mertens — 85% (+51); Mertens 15% (−52)
Women’s tennis at the Wuhan Open, and the busiest market on Kalshi. ESPN’s live scoreboard reports Daria Snigur defeated Elise Mertens in the first round in a match that began at 4:25am ET, and the price followed the scoreline. Neither venue has settled: Kalshi shows 85%, and Polymarket shows 77% in this snapshot against 73% in our top-volume snapshot — the two pulls simply caught the price seconds apart. Our read: the gap to 100% is the clock on settlement, not doubt about the result.
View market ↗Fed hikes 25 bps in December — 75% (+5); October hike 18% (+3)
The Federal Reserve’s next two meetings, and both prices moved toward a rate increase. A quarter-point hike in December is priced at 75%, up 5 points since Monday. For October, the hike contract rose 3 to 18% (Polymarket’s mirror: 20%), while a hold sits at 81% and Polymarket’s cut leg at 0.6%; those are separate bets, and only the hike contract pays if rates go up. A larger-than-quarter-point move is priced at 1% for October and 3% for December, so a single 25 bps step is the market’s modal path. The next input is tomorrow morning’s inflation report, where the market prices a 50% chance the yearly rate tops 3.6%.
View market ↗NFL, AFC East: Buffalo Bills win the division — 65% (+4); New England Patriots 31% (−4)
NFL division races, repriced after Monday night’s Bills-Rams game. Goal.com’s pregame roundup had the Rams as slight favorites across the venues. Overnight the two division markets went opposite ways: Buffalo gained 4 points to win the AFC East, and the Rams lost 8 in the NFC West, down to 20%. Our read: an 8-point drop in a season-long market is a lot to hang on one October game.
View market ↗Elon Musk posts 360–379 tweets this week — 89.9% (+61.3); 340–359 1.6% (−56)
A weekly count of Elon Musk’s posts, measured from noon ET last Tuesday to noon today. A day ago the favored bracket was 340–359. Overnight the money moved one bracket higher, to 360–379. Our read: he posted more in the final stretch than traders expected. The window is open until noon, so a busy morning could still push the total into the next bracket.
View market ↗Does the Fed hike its way into a recession?
The long-dated economics question we’re watching, not betting.
Kalshi prices a U.S. recession starting in 2026 at 4%, (−1) in 24 hours; the contract resolves Jan 31, 110 days out. The 2027 version sits at 19%. A rate cut at the Oct 28 Fed meeting is priced at 0.6% on Polymarket.
What the market says about the path: Kalshi prices a quarter-point hike at the Oct 28 meeting at 18% (+3) and no change at 81% (−3); by the Dec 9 meeting a 25 bps hike is 75% (+5), with a larger move at 3%. Polymarket’s mirror of the October decision has the hike at 20% and no change at 81%. The commentary is already working off a hike as the base case — The Economic Times is framing bitcoin around what happens “before a Fed rate hike and after,” and Stay-At-Home Macro is arguing to “hand the pen to the Committee.”
The damage side is where the market is quiet. The latest official unemployment rate our engine carries is 4.2% for September, and the recession contracts give a 2026 start almost no weight at 4%; the 2027 question at 19% is where the worry, such as it is, lives.
Our read: the market prices more hikes and almost no recession at the same time, agreeing with itself on direction and with nobody on damage. Tomorrow morning’s CPI (Kalshi prices the yearly rate above 3.5% at 87%) tests the hiking case. We revisit if inflation and rate prices keep climbing while the recession price stays flat.
Today’s markets deciding — a side, a price, a time. Trade idea means a documented edge; price to watch means a stated price would change our mind; watch means worth reading, no edge claimed. All markets open at send.
Champions League. Atlético is priced at exactly 50% to win, on $468K traded in 24 hours. A draw and a United win split the other half, which is a price for a tight match, not a walkover.
Tuesday college football and the closest game on Kalshi today. Delaware is 53% and Middle Tennessee 47%, with Delaware (−3) over 24 hours. The 51,789 contracts traded in 24 hours trail only the ALCS.
The biggest individual trades of the last 24 hours — who put money down, how much, and how it went.
Bills vs. Rams also drew two more six-figure Buffalo buys on Monday evening, at 60% and 68%, plus one $125K Rams buy at 47%.
A Strait of Hormuz deal and a Republican Senate, bundled: 5.3%
Two questions in one price — and the arithmetic says the number is mostly about the deal, barely about the Senate.
This market asks you to be right about the Persian Gulf and the U.S. Senate at the same time. “Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?” is priced at 5.3% (+1.2) over 24 hours, with $291K traded in a day. It pays only if a Strait of Hormuz agreement arrives by October 23 and Republicans win the Senate on November 3. The companion contract “Will there be no Hormuz agreement?” sits at 88.7% (−0.1), leaving the implied chance of a qualifying deal near 11.3%. The deal leg barely moved while the bundle gained a point, so the day’s buying was about the Senate half; the prices alone cannot say why.
Divide 5.3% by 11.3% and you get the part that matters. In the world where a deal counts, the bundle implies Republicans keep the Senate at roughly 47% — our arithmetic, from two market prices. What qualifies as an “agreement” is set by this contract’s wording, not by a headline. There is no base rate for a Hormuz deal on a three-week clock, so the first half of this bet is nearly the whole bet. Our read: the 5.3% tells you how unlikely a qualifying agreement is, and only faintly who runs the Senate. ↗