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What happened in the last 24 hours — the stories the money will react to.
Ceasefire Contracts Near Certainty, Hormuz Normalcy Nowhere Close
The ceasefire ladder on Polymarket is steep. A US–Yemen ceasefire continuing through October 15 is priced at 99.5% (+1.3), and a US–Iran ceasefire through the same date at 98.1% (+0.8). Push the horizon to October 31 and the US–Iran contract drops to 81%, with an Israel–Iran ceasefire through October 31 at 86% (+1). The nearer dates resolve tomorrow; the longer ones have 17 days to run.
Further out, the picture is less settled: Strait of Hormuz shipping returning to normal by year-end is 14% (−1), no Hormuz agreement is 90.6% (+1.9), and a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade by December 31 is 39.7% (−2.9). The near truce is priced as safe; the region is a long way from calm.
September CPI Brackets Center on 3.6% Ahead of the Fed
Kalshi’s year-over-year inflation brackets for September settle at 8:29am ET today. Traders have the print centered right at 3.6%: above 3.5% is 79%, above 3.6% is 48% (−2), above 3.7% is 10% (−1), and above 3.8% is 2%. The monthly bracket is steeper still, with a rise of more than 0.3% priced at 93%. A hotter number would feed the Fed’s October 28 decision, where Kalshi prices a 25-basis-point hike at 18% and a 25-point cut at just 1%, and it lands with the November 3 midterms 20 days out.
For the Fed meeting itself, Polymarket prices no change in rates at 80%; Kalshi’s mirror of the same decision sits at 81%.
Midterm Split Scenario: Democratic Senate, Republican House Priced at 1%
With the November 3 midterms 20 days out, Polymarket’s balance-of-power market gives almost nothing to one particular outcome: a Democratic Senate paired with a Republican House is priced at just 1% (+0.2), on $288K traded in 24 hours and $431K of liquidity. Closer in, Kalshi asks whether President Trump or the White House names an AI czar before October 16; that contract sits at 56% and settles tomorrow.
Traders see almost no path to a D-Senate, R-House combination. The balance-of-power contract resolves on election day, Tuesday, November 3.
NLCS Game 3: Dodgers Favored at Home Tonight
Major League Baseball’s National League Championship Series continues tonight at 8:00pm ET with Game 3 between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers. It is the most-traded game on Kalshi’s board today by a wide margin: 942,291 contracts lifetime, 707,010 of them in the last 24 hours. No sportsbook line matched in our check, so the Kalshi price stands alone.
Kalshi makes the Dodgers the favorite in tonight’s game at 62% to the Brewers’ 39%, both unchanged on the day.
Guardians a Narrow Favorite Over the Rays Tomorrow
The Tampa Bay–Cleveland game dated Thursday is the second-most-traded game on tomorrow’s Kalshi board, with 41,972 contracts traded lifetime and 36,911 in the last 24 hours. Kalshi has Cleveland at 54% (+2) and Tampa Bay at 47% (−1), a modest drift toward the Guardians over the past day.
With the price near even, Cleveland at 54% is the thinnest favorite on tomorrow’s board.
Indiana enacts a data center moratorium by end of 2027 — 17% (+7)
Whether the state of Indiana freezes new data center construction by the end of 2027 is the day’s biggest move, up 7 points to 17% with $1.1M in liquidity behind it. The shorter contract, which needs a ban by June 2027, is at 10% (+1), so traders expect any statewide action to come late if it comes at all. Our read: a 7-point jump on $325K of volume in a contract with 443 days to run is traders repricing a possibility, not pricing a done deal — a sponsored bill in the statehouse is still the thing that would actually move this price.
View market ↗US announces end of the Iranian blockade by December 31 — 39.7% (−2.9)
The chance that Washington declares its naval blockade of Iran over by year-end slipped 2.9 points to 39.7%. Related contracts also sagged: Hormuz shipping back to normal by December 31 is 14% (−1), and a U.S. invasion before 2027 ticked up to 17% (+1). Yet the near-term truce contracts went the other way: a US–Iran ceasefire through October 15 rose to 98.1% (+0.8), and the October 31 version sits at 81%. Our read: traders are separating a ceasefire that holds from a blockade that is formally announced over, and the gap between those two words is where this contract now lives.
View market ↗Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 French presidential election — 44.8% (+2.9)
France’s presidential election, which this market settles in April 2027, has Marine Le Pen drifting toward a coin flip: up 2.9 points to 44.8% over the past day. The move is modest; the level is the story. The market gives the National Rally leader nearly even odds of the Élysée six months out. Who else ends up on the ballot will matter more for the next move than any single poll.
View market ↗Champions League: Manchester City to beat PSG today — 48% (+3); PSG 30% (−3)
Today’s marquee Champions League match, Manchester City against Paris Saint-Germain at 3:00pm ET, has shifted three points toward City. City to win is 48%, PSG 30%, and the draw is left at about 22%. Three points on more than a million dollars of trading is the day’s biggest shift in any mainstream game, and it is the biggest game on the board.
View market ↗A U.S. invasion of Iran by New Year’s at 17%? Not yet.
The ceasefire contracts say pause. An invasion is a different question.
The market prices a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 at 17% (+1), on $87K traded in 24 hours. It resolves Dec 31, 78 days out, and could settle any day. The U.S.–Iran ceasefire through Oct 31 sits at 81%.
The surrounding contracts say the market expects the truce to hold in the near term: a US–Iran ceasefire continuing through October 15 is priced at 98.1% (+0.8), through October 31 at 81%, and an Israel–Iran ceasefire through October 31 at 86% (+1). The US announcing an end to its Iranian blockade by December 31 sits at 39.7% (−2.9), and no Hormuz agreement at 90.6% (+1.9).
Read together, that is a market pricing a fragile but holding pause on one hand and a long road to normalcy on the other — Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end is just 14% (−1). An invasion would require that pause to break and then escalate well past anything the nearer contracts are pricing, all inside 78 days.
Our read: the price is for a word, and the contract’s definition of “invade” is doing the work. Strikes short of a ground invasion may or may not count, and until that line is clear, 17% is a bet on resolution rules as much as on the war. We’d revisit if the Oct 31 ceasefire contract slides while this one holds.
Today’s markets deciding — a side, a price, a time. Trade idea means a documented edge; price to watch means a stated price would change our mind; watch means worth reading, no edge claimed. All markets open at send.
September year-over-year CPI brackets settle at 8:29am ET today. The above-3.6% bracket was 48% at 6:06am ET; above 3.5% is 79% and above 3.7% is 10%, so traders expect a 3.6% print. This number frames the Oct 28 Fed meeting, where a hold is priced 81% on Kalshi.
The biggest individual trades of the last 24 hours — who put money down, how much, and how it went.
Tuesday’s Galatasaray–Barcelona Champions League match drew six-figure bets both ways: $485K that Barcelona would not win by two goals, and $279K spread across a Barcelona win and no draw.
Putin out of the Kremlin by New Year’s: 3.8%
Seventy-eight days, $191K traded in a day, and a question that does not care how he leaves.
The market on whether Vladimir Putin stops being President of Russia by December 31, 2026 sits at 3.8%, down (−0.6) in 24 hours, with $191K traded in a day against $637K of liquidity. It drifted lower while the headlines went the other way. The Atlantic Council reports Putin snubbed Trump’s ceasefire, and ABC News reports Russia struck a Ukrainian power plant after Trump announced an energy ceasefire. A defiant leader is not a departing one, and the price agrees.
The question is only whether he holds the office on December 31, not how he leaves it; resignation, removal and anything else all count the same. Seventy-eight days is a deadline, and a question like this could settle any day or never. There is no useful base rate for a sitting Russian president leaving mid-term, so the nearest comparison is the market’s own behavior: it fell on a day when the news was about Russia refusing to stop. Our read: 3.8% is the standing price of the unexpected, and $191K of trading is not evidence that anyone expects it. That makes it information, just not much of it. ↗