Economy oddsQuotes as of Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 6:06 AM ET

Fed decision odds

What will the Federal Reserve do at its next meeting?

The market's live read on the next FOMC decision: hold, cut, or hike, and by how much. The topic page rolls to the next meeting; every settled meeting stays in the record below.

The market now

Market	Venue	YES	1d	7d	Bid / Ask	Volume
Cut 25bps Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	1%	—	—	0 / 1	1.6M contracts
Cut >25bps Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	1%	—	—	0 / 1	248K contracts
Hike 25bps Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	7%	—	—	6 / 7	6.5M contracts
Hike >25bps Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	1%	—	—	0 / 1	1.1M contracts
Fed maintains rate Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	93%	—	—	92 / 93	8.9M contracts

YES is the price of the “yes” side in percent; a contract pays 100 if it happens. Changes are in points. Kalshi volume is in contracts; Polymarket volume is in dollars. They are not comparable.

What comes next

Wed, Oct 28, 2026 — FOMC decision and statement, 2:00pm ET · source: federalreserve.gov meeting calendar. Full calendar.

What actually settles it

The venue’s own rule text for each contract, as published at quote time. This is the sentence that pays, and it can differ from the headline.

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Cut 25bps (Kalshi)

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.