Jobs report odds
How many jobs will the next payrolls report show?
The market's distribution for the next nonfarm payrolls print, one contract per threshold.
The market now
| Market | Venue | YES | 1d | 7d | Bid / Ask | Volume | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25,000 Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 94% | — | — | 91 / 94 | 5K contracts | |
| Above 0 Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 85% | — | — | 84 / 89 | 5K contracts | |
| Above 10,000 Will above 10000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 83% | — | — | 79 / 84 | 2K contracts | |
| Above 20,000 Will above 20000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 71% | — | — | 71 / 75 | 12K contracts | |
| Above 30,000 Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 72% | — | — | 63 / 71 | 28K contracts | |
| Above 40,000 Will above 40000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 68% | — | — | 61 / 67 | 12K contracts | |
| Above 50,000 Will above 50000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 58% | — | — | 58 / 59 | 22K contracts | |
| Above 60,000 Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 52% | — | — | 50 / 58 | 2K contracts | |
| Above 70,000 Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 51% | — | — | 49 / 51 | 24K contracts | |
| Above 80,000 Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 40% | — | — | 38 / 47 | 15K contracts | |
| Above 90,000 Will above 90000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 33% | — | — | 32 / 37 | 3K contracts | |
| Above 100,000 Will above 100000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 28% | — | — | 27 / 28 | 3K contracts | |
| Above 125,000 Will above 125000 jobs be added in October 2026? | Kalshi | 12% | — | — | 12 / 17 | 4K contracts |
YES is the price of the “yes” side in percent; a contract pays 100 if it happens. Changes are in points. Kalshi volume is in contracts; Polymarket volume is in dollars. They are not comparable.
What actually settles it
The venue’s own rule text for each contract, as published at quote time. This is the sentence that pays, and it can differ from the headline.
Will above -25000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above -25,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 0 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 0 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 10000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 10,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 10000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 20000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 20,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 20000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 30,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 30000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 40000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 40,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 40000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 50000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 50,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 50000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 60,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 60000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 70,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 70000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 80,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 80000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 90000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 90,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 90000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 100000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 100,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 100000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will above 125000 jobs be added in October 2026? — Above 125,000 (Kalshi)
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 125000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
How to read this market
How Fed and CPI prediction markets work — Thresholds, release dates, and settlement for the Fed and CPI contracts everyone watches: what a hold pays on, how a CPI ladder reads, where the calendars live.
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