Government shutdown odds
Does the federal government shut down at the next funding deadline?
The appropriations-lapse question, priced on Polymarket and Kalshi: does federal funding lapse at the next deadline? The page rolls to the next deadline once one passes.
The market now
| Market | Venue | YES | 1d | 7d | Bid / Ask | Volume | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026? | Kalshi | 36% | — | — | 34 / 35 | 27K contracts |
YES is the price of the “yes” side in percent; a contract pays 100 if it happens. Changes are in points. Kalshi volume is in contracts; Polymarket volume is in dollars. They are not comparable.
What comes next
Thu, Oct 1, 2026 — Federal funding deadline. Full calendar.
What actually settles it
The venue’s own rule text for each contract, as published at quote time. This is the sentence that pays, and it can differ from the headline.
Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026? — Yes (Kalshi)
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Sat, Dec 12, 2026, 10:00 AM ET. View on Kalshi
How to read this market
How settlement works — The rule text pays, not the title. How contracts resolve on Kalshi and Polymarket, what a settlement source is, and why a 99% price is not a result.
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