2028 presidential election odds
Who wins the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
The long-dated field on Kalshi, with Polymarket's most-traded individual contract alongside. Early presidential markets are thin on information and heavy on name recognition; read them as a leaderboard, not a forecast.
The market now
| Market | Venue | YES | 1d | 7d | Bid / Ask | Volume | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio Who will win the next presidential election? | Kalshi | 10% | — | — | 10 / 11 | 5.9M contracts | |
| Gavin Newsom Who will win the next presidential election? | Kalshi | 13% | — | — | 12 / 13 | 4.9M contracts | |
| Jon Ossoff Who will win the next presidential election? | Kalshi | 8.9% | — | — | 9 / 9.2 | 4.8M contracts | |
| J.D. Vance Who will win the next presidential election? | Kalshi | 20% | — | — | 19 / 20 | 4.6M contracts | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Who will win the next presidential election? | Kalshi | 8.1% | — | — | 7.9 / 8 | 4.5M contracts | |
| Donald J. Trump Who will win the next presidential election? | Kalshi | 2.5% | — | — | 2.5 / 2.6 | 4.0M contracts | |
| J.B. Pritzker Who will win the next presidential election? | Kalshi | 2.5% | — | — | 1.8 / 2.4 | 3.1M contracts | |
| Kamala Harris Who will win the next presidential election? | Kalshi | 4% | — | — | 3.9 / 4.1 | 3.1M contracts | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Polymarket | 19.2% | — | — | 19.1 / 19.2 | $17.2M |
YES is the price of the “yes” side in percent; a contract pays 100 if it happens. Changes are in points. Polymarket's displayed price can be a bid–ask midpoint or the last trade, not a price you can hit; the bid and ask columns are what was executable at quote time. Kalshi volume is in contracts; Polymarket volume is in dollars. They are not comparable.
Related, not equivalent. Related, not equivalent: Kalshi's contracts are one per person on winning the election; Polymarket's Vance contract resolves on the AP, Fox News, and NBC calling the race. Similar questions, different fine print.
What actually settles it
The venue’s own rule text for each contract, as published at quote time. This is the sentence that pays, and it can differ from the headline.
Who will win the next presidential election? — Marco Rubio (Kalshi)
If Marco Rubio is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Nov 7, 2029, 10:00 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Who will win the next presidential election? — Gavin Newsom (Kalshi)
If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Nov 7, 2029, 10:00 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Who will win the next presidential election? — Jon Ossoff (Kalshi)
If Jon Ossoff is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Nov 7, 2029, 10:00 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Who will win the next presidential election? — J.D. Vance (Kalshi)
If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Nov 7, 2029, 10:00 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Who will win the next presidential election? — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Kalshi)
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Nov 7, 2029, 10:00 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Who will win the next presidential election? — Donald J. Trump (Kalshi)
If Donald J. Trump is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Nov 7, 2029, 10:00 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Who will win the next presidential election? — J.B. Pritzker (Kalshi)
If J.B. Pritzker is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Nov 7, 2029, 10:00 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Who will win the next presidential election? — Kamala Harris (Kalshi)
If Kamala Harris is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Nov 7, 2029, 10:00 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? (Polymarket)
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Trading closes Wed, Nov 8, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. View on Polymarket
How to read this market
How to read election markets without confusing odds with vote share — A 60% chance of winning is not 60% of the vote. What election contracts predict, what moves them, and how control-of-Congress contracts actually settle.
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