Bitcoin $100K odds
When does Bitcoin trade at $100,000 again?
Polymarket's month-by-month ladder for Bitcoin reaching $100,000. Read the wording: 'hits' or 'touches' a level is a different contract from 'closes above' it.
The market now
| Market | Venue | YES | 1d | 7d | Bid / Ask | Volume | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 18.5% | — | — | 18 / 19 | $62K | |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027? | Polymarket | 63.5% | — | — | 62 / 65 | $13K | |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2027? | Polymarket | 74% | — | — | 73 / 75 | $9K | |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by June 30, 2027? | Polymarket | 54% | — | — | 53 / 55 | $8K | |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by March 31, 2027? | Polymarket | 41% | — | — | 40 / 42 | $7K |
YES is the price of the “yes” side in percent; a contract pays 100 if it happens. Changes are in points. Polymarket's displayed price can be a bid–ask midpoint or the last trade, not a price you can hit; the bid and ask columns are what was executable at quote time.
What actually settles it
The venue’s own rule text for each contract, as published at quote time. This is the sentence that pays, and it can differ from the headline.
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? (Polymarket)
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $100,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Trading closes Fri, Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. View on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027? (Polymarket)
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $100,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Trading closes Fri, Oct 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. View on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2027? (Polymarket)
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $100,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Trading closes Sat, Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET. View on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by June 30, 2027? (Polymarket)
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $100,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Trading closes Thu, Jul 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. View on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by March 31, 2027? (Polymarket)
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $100,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Trading closes Thu, Apr 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. View on Polymarket
How to read this market
"Touches $100,000" versus "closes above $100,000": why contract wording matters — Two crypto contracts on the same price level can settle differently on the same day. Touch contracts, close contracts, deadlines, and the settling price source.
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