Fed funds rate odds
Where will the federal funds rate be after the next Fed meeting?
The rate-level ladder for the next FOMC meeting: each contract asks whether the target range will sit above a given level after the decision. Read together, the rungs are the market's distribution for the rate itself, not just for the direction of the move.
The market now
| Market | Venue | YES | 1d | 7d | Bid / Ask | Volume | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.50% Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? | Kalshi | 70% | — | — | 1 / 70 | 85 contracts | |
| Above 4.75% Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? | Kalshi | 35% | — | — | 1 / 50 | 4 contracts | |
| Above 5.00% Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? | Kalshi | 0% | — | — | 1 / 72 | 0 contracts | |
| Above 5.25% Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? | Kalshi | 13% | — | — | 1 / 64 | 5 contracts | |
| Above 5.50% Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? | Kalshi | 0% | — | — | 1 / 61 | 0 contracts | |
| Above 5.75% Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? | Kalshi | 0% | — | — | 1 / 57 | 0 contracts | |
| Above 6.00% Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? | Kalshi | 6% | — | — | 1 / 52 | 88 contracts |
YES is the price of the “yes” side in percent; a contract pays 100 if it happens. Changes are in points. Kalshi volume is in contracts; Polymarket volume is in dollars. They are not comparable.
What comes next
Wed, Oct 28, 2026 — FOMC decision and statement, 2:00pm ET · source: federalreserve.gov meeting calendar. Full calendar.
What actually settles it
The venue’s own rule text for each contract, as published at quote time. This is the sentence that pays, and it can differ from the headline.
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? — Above 4.50% (Kalshi)
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.50% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Jan 27, 2027, 1:55 PM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? — Above 4.75% (Kalshi)
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Jan 27, 2027, 1:55 PM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? — Above 5.00% (Kalshi)
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Jan 27, 2027, 1:55 PM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? — Above 5.25% (Kalshi)
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.25% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Jan 27, 2027, 1:55 PM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? — Above 5.50% (Kalshi)
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.50% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Jan 27, 2027, 1:55 PM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? — Above 5.75% (Kalshi)
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Jan 27, 2027, 1:55 PM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? — Above 6.00% (Kalshi)
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 6.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Wed, Jan 27, 2027, 1:55 PM ET. View on Kalshi
How to read this market
How Fed and CPI prediction markets work — Thresholds, release dates, and settlement for the Fed and CPI contracts everyone watches: what a hold pays on, how a CPI ladder reads, where the calendars live.
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