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What happened in the last 24 hours — the stories the money will react to.
Iran Questions Drift Lower With the Blockade Deadline 27 Days Out
Both liquid Iran contracts slipped over the last 24 hours. Polymarket’s “US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31” fell 1.5 points to 19% on $225K traded, with 27 days to its deadline. “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027” eased a point to 15% on $223K against $1.0M of displayed liquidity. Neither move has a catalyst in our data; the thing to watch is whether the blockade question keeps bleeding as its Oct. 31 cutoff approaches.
The nearest questions on the board: Polymarket’s “US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31” at 19% and “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027” at 15%.
Chiefs–Raiders Draws the NFL Sunday’s Biggest Money
Kansas City–Las Vegas is the most-traded game on Kalshi’s board today, with 3.02 million contracts over the market’s life and 952,000 in the last 24 hours. Kalshi prices the Chiefs at 67%, up a point, and the Raiders at 34%. The 4.5-point spread trades at 50%, a true coin flip, while “over 55.5 points” sits at just 28% and “over 47.5” at 51%. The game is today.
Kalshi prices Kansas City at 67% to beat Las Vegas, with the Raiders at 34%; the Chiefs covering a 4.5-point spread trades at 50%.
Democratic Sweep Climbs to 67% With a Month to the Midterms
Election Day is November 3, 30 days out, and the midterm board moved toward Democrats over the last 24 hours. Polymarket’s “D Senate, D House” rose three points to 67% on $382K traded and $2.2M of liquidity, while a Republican sweep sits at 7% and a Democratic Senate with a Republican House at 0.5%. Two single-race markets are also live: Republicans at 67% to win the Kansas Senate race and Democrats at 64% to win the Texas Senate race, each down a point. A whale bought $157K of YES on the Democratic sweep at 66% about an hour before our data pull.
Nothing trades on individual Ohio races in our data. The broader midterm picture has “D Senate, D House” at 67% and “R Senate, R House” at just 7%.
Dodgers–Braves Tonight: Los Angeles 59% on Kalshi
The evening’s MLB game has Los Angeles at 59% on Kalshi, down two points, against Atlanta at 42%, up two, with 183,000 contracts traded in 24 hours. First pitch is 8:00pm ET tonight. On Polymarket, one anonymous account bought the Dodgers twice at 86% for $215K each on Saturday afternoon in a separate Braves–Dodgers market; that game’s result is not in our resolved data.
For tonight’s game, Kalshi’s Los Angeles D line sits at 59% against Atlanta at 42%.
Florida’s Title Odds Sink to 1%; Alabama’s SEC Price Climbs
College football’s championship board repriced over the last 24 hours. Kalshi has Florida at just 1% to win the national title, down four points on 193,000 contracts, and at 4% to win the SEC, down nine. Alabama moved the other way: 8% for the national title, up three, and 20% to win the SEC, up eight. On Polymarket, Sassy-Bucket bought $256K of Alabama at 66% against Mississippi State on Saturday; that game’s result is not in our resolved data.
Elsewhere in Kalshi’s national title market: Ohio St. 17%, Miami (FL) 11%, Indiana 8%.
Heisman Trophy: Jeremiah Smith — 47% (+22); Kamario Taylor 2% (−13)
The Heisman Trophy, college football’s top individual award, repriced sharply over the last 24 hours. Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith jumped 22 points to 47% on 147,000 contracts — the biggest move on Kalshi’s board. Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor fell 13 points to 2%, and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr rose five to 11%. Our read: a near-favorite in October still has two months of games to lose it; the market settles Jan. 1.
View market ↗Democrats control both the Senate and House after the midterms — 67% (+3)
The US midterm elections are 30 days out. The contract paying if Democrats control both the Senate and House after Nov. 3 rose three points since yesterday to 67%. A Republican sweep sits at 7%, and a Democratic Senate with a Republican House at 0.5%. The biggest trade on the contract was a $157K YES buy at 66% about an hour before our data pull. Our read: a two-in-three favorite is a lean, not a verdict, and the next polls move it.
View market ↗Netanyahu is Israel’s prime minister after the next election — 37% (+3)
Israel’s next government: the contract paying if Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister after the next election rose three points since yesterday to 37%. No public catalyst explains the rise. The contract’s deadline is Oct. 27. Israeli prime ministers are chosen by coalition arithmetic after the vote, not by the vote alone, so the thing to watch is which smaller parties say they will sit with him.
View market ↗US recession begins in 2027 — 17% (−5)
A US recession in 2027, as the NBER’s business-cycle committee would officially date it: the odds slipped five points since yesterday to 17%. The NBER declares recessions months after they begin, and this contract runs until Jan. 31, 2028, so it is a bet on the economic data rather than on a calendar. The next thing that moves it is the Oct. 14 inflation reading.
View market ↗David Lisnard for French president at 11.9%? Not yet.
Almost four points in a day, and no rival’s price to measure it against.
France’s 2027 presidential election: the market prices David Lisnard, the center-right mayor of Cannes, at 11.9%, up (+3.8) points in 24 hours on $312K traded. Resolves April 18, 196 days out.
A French presidential election is a two-round contest. The top two finishers in the first round meet in a runoff, so winning means beating a specific opponent on a specific day, not just polling well in October. A single price for a single name says nothing about who that opponent would be.
The only other candidate price trading in size is François Asselineau at 0.1%, which tells us nothing about the front of the field. Our read: a four-point jump with no poll and no rival’s number beside it is a move, not a case. We would revisit with the full set of candidate prices and a poll that puts Lisnard in a runoff.
Today’s markets deciding — a side, a price, a time. Trade idea means a documented edge; price to watch means a stated price would change our mind; watch means worth reading, no edge claimed. All markets open at send.
The busiest game of the last 24 hours: 1.08 million contracts. Houston is 59% and Dallas 42%. The Texans covering −2.5 points sits at 54%, and “over 48.5 points” at 51%, so every line is close to a coin flip.
Milwaukee is 56% and San Diego 44%, with 334,000 contracts traded in 24 hours, the most of any non-football game today. The nightcap, Dodgers–Braves at 8:00pm ET, has Los Angeles at 59%.
Brazil votes in its first round today. Flávio Bolsonaro is 63.1% to win the presidency, up (+4.6) in 24 hours, yet still 61% to finish second today, down (−14). Lula’s second-place price rose to 38.1%.
The biggest individual trades of the last 24 hours — who put money down, how much, and how it went.
One anonymous account spent $946K on Saturday across Spain, the Dodgers and USC — every position a favorite priced 71–92%.
Donald Trump winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is priced at 0.7%. $188K traded on it in a day.
A near-zero price, a long runway to March 2027, and a lot of trading for an outcome the market calls almost impossible.
The Nobel Peace Prize, awarded each year by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, has a contract asking whether Donald Trump wins the 2026 prize. The market prices YES at 0.7%, down (−0.1) over 24 hours, with $188K traded in a day against $600K of displayed liquidity. The contract runs to March 31, 2027.
Only the award itself counts: a nomination, a campaign for one, or a ceasefire credited to him pays nothing. The nearest peace questions on the board agree with the skepticism: a US invasion of Iran before 2027 is priced at 15%, and an announced end to the Iranian blockade by October 31 at 19%. Our read: 0.7% is a market treating the outcome as a rounding error, and $188K of trading is not evidence that anyone knows the committee’s mind. Nor is NO near $1 a guaranteed payout; losing shares pay nothing. ↗