$ yes/no --daily
- 01 /
- 02 /
- 03 /
- 04 /
- 05 /
What happened in the last 24 hours — the stories the money will react to.
U.S. and Iran Hold First Talks Since the June Ceasefire Collapsed
The U.S.-Iran conflict: the two governments have held their first talks since the June ceasefire collapsed, GlobalPost reports. The markets that track the fallout have not moved much on it. Polymarket gives the current truce an 85% (−5) chance of holding through September 30, prices a U.S. announcement ending the Iranian blockade at 30% by October 31 and 58% by December 31, and gives Strait of Hormuz traffic just 21% to return to normal by year-end. Kharg Island remained under Iranian control as of September 22, per the latest status report; the contract on that changing by September 30 sits at 0.5%.
The talks sit alongside Polymarket’s US-Iran ceasefire market, which still gives the truce an 85% chance of holding through September 30.
Prediction Markets Become a Midterm Storyline
The November U.S. midterm elections: CNN is calling this cycle “the first prediction-market election,” reporting on how Kalshi and Polymarket have scrambled the midterms as the platforms themselves become part of the coverage. Kalshi’s own worth is meanwhile being pegged at as much as $42 billion by analysts, Fortune reports, with the company’s standing before the Supreme Court flagged as the swing factor.
Polymarket’s 2026 Balance of Power market gives a full Republican Senate-and-House sweep just 8%.
Cubs Priced at 66% Over Marlins This Afternoon
Major League Baseball’s Chicago Cubs face the Miami Marlins at 2:20 p.m. ET today, and Kalshi’s game market makes Chicago a 66% favorite (−2), with Miami at 35%. It is the sixth-busiest game market on today’s board at 50K contracts, nearly all of it traded in the last 24 hours. A two-point drift against the favorite is small, but on a day when most baseball prices barely moved, it is worth a look before first pitch.
For today’s game, Kalshi’s market favors Chicago at 66% to Miami’s 35%.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting — 68% (+15)
The Federal Reserve’s Oct. 27–28 meeting: the contract that pays if the Fed raises rates a quarter point jumped fifteen points in a day. Fed Governor Michael Barr said further hikes are ‘likely’ needed to tame inflation, The Hill reports, and CNBC reports markets swung to better than 70% after hot inflation data. The separate contract on no change fell to 29% on Polymarket; Kalshi’s mirror of the same decision sits at 32%. Our read: a hike next month is now the base case. Kalshi’s December hike sits at 71% (+4).
View market ↗Nithya Raman wins the Los Angeles mayoral election — 58% (+15.9)
The Los Angeles mayoral election, Nithya Raman against Karen Bass: Raman became the favorite over the past day while Bass slid to 42% (−14). Nothing in our feed explains the move. Our read: a sixteen-point swing in a day with no fresh news attached to it deserves skepticism until the reason surfaces. The race to run the second-largest U.S. city now tilts toward Raman; a day earlier it tilted toward Bass. Settles Dec. 31.
View market ↗Bitcoin dips to $70,000 by Dec. 31 — 35% (+8)
Bitcoin’s price: OKX puts it near $83,539, with a day range of $83,236–$84,667. The contract paying if Bitcoin is above $84,000 at noon ET today fell to 24.9% (−56) as of 6:06am ET. The contract paying if Bitcoin reaches $90,000 in September fell to 13.2% (−23.4). Our read: traders have stopped debating a run to $90,000 this month and started pricing a slide to $70,000 by year-end.
View market ↗A U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027? The market says 13%.
Talks have resumed; 98 days remain to the deadline.
The contract pays if the United States invades Iran before 2027. It is priced at 13% (−1), with $180K traded in 24 hours and $1.1M of liquidity, and it resolves Dec. 31. The nearest short-dated read, the U.S.–Iran ceasefire holding through Sept. 30, is priced at 85%.
The related markets describe a conflict short of that. The ceasefire contract is priced at 85% (−5) to hold through Sept. 30. Traders give a U.S. announcement ending the Iranian blockade 30% by Oct. 31 and 58% by Dec. 31, and Strait of Hormuz traffic just 21% to return to normal by year-end. Kharg Island remained under Iranian control as of Sept. 22, per the latest status report, and the contract on that changing by Sept. 30 sits at 0.5%.
Diplomacy has restarted: the two sides have held their first talks since the June ceasefire collapsed, GlobalPost reports. On the market’s own terms, then, the picture is a blockade traders expect to end by year-end, a strait they do not expect to normalize, and a ceasefire they expect to hold at least another week.
Missing: a clear reading of what the contract counts as an invasion, and any reporting on U.S. intentions beyond those first talks. Our read: the blockade and the strait are already in the price, and 13% is a bet on a ground war that no market in our feed is pricing. We would revisit if the talks produce a framework or collapse, or once the Sept. 30 ceasefire market settles.
Today’s markets deciding — a side, a price, a time. Trade idea means a documented edge; price to watch means a stated price would change our mind; watch means worth reading, no edge claimed. All markets open at send.
Thursday Night Football, and Kalshi’s most-traded market at 1.94M contracts. Kalshi’s “Packers by over 5.5” spread contract sits at 47% and the over-44.5 total at 43%; the Falcons vs. Packers market on Polymarket sits at 31%.
Thursday college football, and Kalshi’s second-busiest market at 99K contracts. Liberty 56%, Coastal Carolina 45%: a slight lean toward Liberty, priced like a one-score game.
The day’s biggest baseball market at 88K contracts, nearly all of it traded in the last 24 hours. Pittsburgh drifted up to 60% (+2); St. Louis sits at 41%. It is an afternoon start, so act before lunch.
The closest baseball price of the day, and one that moved: Philadelphia 53% (+6), Milwaukee 48% (−5) over 24 hours.
The biggest individual trades of the last 24 hours — who put money down, how much, and how it went.
Shakhtar Donetsk is 1-in-500 to win the Champions League. $424K traded on it in a day.
A full day’s trading roughly matched everything resting in the order book, on a contract that pays only if a Ukrainian club lifts Europe’s biggest trophy next May.
The Champions League is Europe’s top club soccer tournament, and Shakhtar Donetsk, a Ukrainian club, is priced at 0.2% to win the 2026-27 edition. That is a 1-in-500 shot. It drew $424K of trading in 24 hours against $413K of posted liquidity, the money sitting ready to buy and sell, so one day’s activity roughly matched the whole book. For scale, Kalshi prices the Chicago Bears at 2% to win the Super Bowl, ten times Shakhtar’s number.
YES pays only if Shakhtar lifts the trophy itself. The contract settles Sunday, May 30, 2027, at 7:59pm ET, and a deep run or a famous upset along the way counts for nothing. One champion comes out of the entire field, 248 days from now. Our read: the price is information; the volume is not. Heavy trading does not say who is buying or why. A NO share at 99.8% is still a wager: it pays $1 if Shakhtar falls short and nothing if the 1-in-500 lands. ↗